Scientists around the world are watching the Pacific Ocean very closely in 2026. New data show signs that an El Niño climate event may form later this year. This natural event happens when warm ocean water moves east across the Pacific. Experts say this shift can raise global temperatures and change the weather in many regions. Some researchers now warn that the next few years could bring record heat.
Early climate signals already suggest change. Weather agencies report warm water building in the western Pacific and moving east. Scientists say there is about a 50 % chance that El Niño could develop by mid-year. If it forms, global temperatures may rise even more strongly in 2027.
Researcher Zeke Hausfather explained the timing of this effect. He said that if El Niño appears later in 2026, it will mainly influence global temperatures in the following year. “That’s why I expect 2027 to set a new global temperature record,” he said.
Other scientists share this concern. Climate expert Andrew Watkins said he would “hesitate to bet there won’t be a new hottest year on record.” He also warned that human-caused global warming is now so strong that extreme heat can happen even without a powerful El Niño. “We don’t need El Niño to push global temperatures up,” he said.
How El Niño Changes Global Weather
El Niño is part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean called ENSO. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures rise above normal levels. Even a small increase can change winds, rain, and storms across the planet. These shifts can lead to heat waves, floods, droughts, and strong tropical storms in different regions.
Past El Niño events show how strong the impact can be. One historic event in 1997–98 caused deadly landslides in California and major coral reef loss worldwide. Modern El Niño episodes have also disrupted rainfall in Africa, caused drought in the Amazon, and increased heat stress on coral reefs.
Because oceans store most of the planet’s extra heat, changes in ocean temperature are very important for climate science. About 90 % of the excess heat from global warming is held in the ocean. This makes ocean warming a key sign of future climate risk.
Record Heat In A Warming World
The danger from El Niño is greater today because the Earth is already very warm. Recent years have ranked among the hottest ever measured. Scientists say 2025 followed earlier record-breaking years, showing a long-term warming trend.
Global sea surface temperatures are also unusually high in early 2026. Data from climate agencies shows ocean temperatures near historic levels, raising concern that a new El Niño could push warming even higher.
Climate researchers warn that extreme heat brings serious risks. High temperatures increase the chance of wildfires, strong storms, and long heat waves. Coastal and ocean regions may face especially strong effects because warm water keeps heat in the climate system for longer periods.
Scientists also stress that natural climate cycles are not the only cause. Human activity, especially burning fossil fuels, continues to raise global temperatures. United Nations leaders say urgent climate action is still possible but must happen quickly. One global warning states that there is still time to avoid the worst impacts, but leaders must act now.
Economic And Political Effects
Climate change not only affect weather. It also influences food supply, migration, and global markets. Extreme heat and changing rainfall can damage crops and water systems. This can raise food prices and increase pressure on governments.
Weather disasters also affect insurance costs, energy demand, and public health. When storms, floods, or droughts become stronger, countries must spend more money on protection and recovery. Scientists say climate forecasts can “save thousands of lives” and reduce economic losses when used for planning.
Because El Niño affects many continents at the same time, it is seen as a global security issue. Governments now study climate data to prepare for disasters and protect infrastructure. International cooperation is becoming more important as climate risks grow.
Looking Ahead To 2027 And Beyond
Even with strong warnings, scientists note that climate prediction is complex. El Niño events vary in strength and timing, and exact outcomes are uncertain. Still, many experts agree that the world is entering a hotter period.
Recent analysis shows that global temperatures often reach new highs during El Niño years, especially when combined with long-term warming from greenhouse gases. This means the next El Niño could mark another step in a continuing climate trend rather than a single unusual event.
For policymakers and communities, the message is clear. Preparation for extreme weather, stronger climate policy, and faster emission cuts are becoming urgent needs. Scientists continue to monitor the Pacific Ocean for signs of change, knowing that today’s ocean temperatures may shape tomorrow’s global future.
As Watkins warned, record heat may soon feel normal. His words reflect a growing scientific concern that the world is moving into a new climate reality—one where extreme temperatures are no longer rare but expected.
