Persistent security threats in the Red Sea corridor have forced global shipping lines to alter long-established maritime routes, adding time, cost, and strategic uncertainty to international trade flows that carry more than 80 % of the world’s goods by sea. Industry analysts and maritime data over recent months show that rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope has become a de facto standard for many carriers, even as tentative signs of a return to the Suez Canal emerge.
For decades, the Red Sea and Suez Canal route has been a linchpin of global maritime commerce – linking Asia and Europe via the shortest seaway and handling nearly 12 % of total trade and up to 30 % of container traffic. Its strategic value means that any disruption ripples across global markets. But ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly attacks on commercial vessels linked to the conflict in Yemen and the wider Middle East, have undermined confidence in the corridor’s reliability.
Shipping firms traditionally shunned Red Sea transits after a wave of militant attacks on commercial vessels starting in late 2023, which saw cargo ships and tankers diverted for safety. Many carriers rerouted fleets south around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10 to 14 days to journeys — an extra 3,000 miles or more — and significantly raising fuel consumption and operational costs.
The financial implications have been stark. Freight rates for container shipping have climbed sharply as supply chains adjust, and war-risk insurance premiums soared in response to heightened danger. Marine insurers flagged the Red Sea as the principal conflict zone influencing premiums, prompting carriers and brokers to navigate a fluid risk landscape while supply chains remain under stress.
The extended routes around Africa have also created logistical bottlenecks at alternate hubs. Mediterranean ports such as Barcelona report double-digit increases in cargo transshipments as shippers circumvent the Suez route, placing strain on port capacity and inland rail connections. Meanwhile, major Asian ports are experiencing congestion delays as vessels converge on fewer viable corridors.
Still, recent developments suggest potential shifts. In late December 2025, two vessels from the French shipping giant CMA CGM successfully transited the Suez Canal without incident, reflecting a possible tentative resumption of Red Sea and canal traffic. The carrier plans to restart a vital India-U.S. service via this route in early 2026, even as others remain cautious.
Despite these positive signs, experts warn that the Red Sea remains a high-risk zone. Elevated war-risk designations, ongoing regional tensions, and the broader geopolitical environment mean many shippers will continue to weigh safety against cost savings. Some executives have indicated that significant reductions in regional threats — including a durable ceasefire and improved security cooperation — are prerequisites for a full return to pre-crisis routing patterns.
The shifts are also having environmental consequences. Longer voyages around the Cape route increase greenhouse gas emissions significantly, undermining industry efforts to decarbonize maritime transport even as climate pressures mount.
For global markets, the stakes are high. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that fragile maritime trade growth, combined with rising costs and supply chain uncertainty, could dampen global economic expansion. Disruptions along key choke points like the Red Sea underscore the vulnerability of global commerce to geopolitical shocks.
As international stakeholders — from shipping conglomerates to national navies — grapple with these evolving risks, the future of global shipping routes depends not just on naval patrols or temporary ceasefires, but on durable solutions to the underlying political conflicts that have transformed one of the world’s most vital trade arteries into a linchpin of economic volatility.
